Turkish Lira Forecast & Price Predictions 2025 and Beyond: CBRT Continues Cutting Rates as Inflation Pressures Ease

The Turkish Lira has collapsed against the US and European currencies as the country’s monetary policy has kept interest rates low rather than raising them to combat runaway inflation rates.

Forecasts from financial analysts, such as those at Danske Bank and ING, and algorithm-based websites such as WalletInvestor, are all factoring in a continuing potential decline for the lira against the US dollar, the euro, and the British pound.

However, remember that analysts can and do get their predictions wrong. Always do your own research.

The Turkish Lira has recently experienced a decline against major currencies, with the USD/TRY pair reaching approximately 35.67 and the EUR/TRY pair trading around 37.04. This depreciation is influenced by the Central Bank of Turkey's recent monetary policy decisions, including a 250-basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate to 45% on January 23, 2025.  

The rate cut aligns with a slight easing in annual inflation, which decreased to 44.38% in December 2024 from 47.09% the previous month. Despite these developments, the Lira remains under pressure due to ongoing economic challenges and external factors. 

Technical indicators suggest a strong bullish trend for USD/TRY, with 92.86% of signals from moving averages indicating upward momentum. Key resistance levels are identified at 35.75 and 36.00, while support levels are at 35.64, 35.59, and 35.54. A break above resistance may signal further gains for the USD against the Lira, whereas a drop below support could indicate a potential reversal. 

Given the current economic policies and technical outlook, the Turkish Lira may continue to face depreciation pressures. The central bank's recent rate cuts, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, could further weaken the currency if not accompanied by measures to control inflation and bolster investor confidence. Therefore, without significant policy adjustments or external support, the Lira is likely to remain under downward pressure in the near term. 

However, remember that analysts can and do get their predictions wrong. Always do your own research. 

Most financial analysts and algorithm-based websites have forecast long-term declines for the Turkish lira against most major global currencies, such as the US dollar, British pound, and euro. 

Whether USD/TRY, EUR/TRY or GBP/TRY is a good investment for you or not will depend on your portfolio composition, investment goals, and risk profile, among other factors.  

Different trading strategies will suit different investment goals with a short or long-term focus. Remember, currency pairs can be highly volatile. You should do your own research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose. 

Predicting the exact movement of the Turkish Lira in 2025 is challenging due to economic uncertainties, including inflation, monetary policies, and geopolitical factors. However, if inflation persists and the central bank's policies remain dovish, the Lira might face downward pressure. Conversely, reforms or stronger foreign investment could stabilize or strengthen the currency.